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Macroeconomics

Denial.

Or, perhaps ramblings of my mind would be a better fitting title to this post. I was pondering this morning about the current state of affairs that we are undergoing in the US and just amazed at the amount of pessimism that still remains amongst those people who aren’t out …

Is The Recession Over?

With all the hoopla over Friday’s jobs number, I found it the perfect time to ask a very simple question to the actual people who are out pounding the pavement: is the recession over? Instead of relying on the DC brain trust with their econometric models, people who are sitting …

FOMC Results

No change, most special liquidity facilities to expire in February. Economic activity has strengthened slightly, labor seems to be stabilizing. Employers remain reluctant to hire. Bank lending continues to contract. No change in A-MBS schedules. Not really any change in the statement.   Below is the verbatim text of the …

New Home Sales

342K vs My Forecast 350K, consensus forecast 372K… Is this like The Price Is Right? What do I win, Bob Barker?                         (Dec)    (Nov)    (Oct) Sales At Annual Rate   342,000   370,000   408,000 Percent Change         -7.6%      -9.3      4.3 Northeast               40,000    28,000    33,000 Midwest                 43,000    73,000    56,000 South                  178,000   192,000   224,000 West                    …

1/27/10 Morning Notes

Key Events Today 10:00AM ET New Home Sales – consensus 372K, previous 355K. My forecast: 350K Tim Geithner Speaks in DC – AIG Inquiry 2:15 PM ET FOMC Statement I expect that the rates will stay the same (so does pretty much everyone else out there). I do not expect …

Nice One, CBO

Releasing the FY2010 budget deficit number right during the melee around Consumer Confidence. It didn’t slip our eyes. The FY 2010 budget deficit is projected to reach 1.3 Trillion USD. Update: FY2011 deficit projected at 980B On the newswires attached to the story: Steny Hoyer urges Pay As You Go …